Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.195957 0.228531 0.264247 0.306231 0.354150 0.407048 0.469779
2025-11-23 0.135239 0.177670 0.229239 0.296138 0.380194 0.481838 0.613533
2025-11-30 0.112187 0.160859 0.224607 0.313328 0.432570 0.586099 0.797332
2025-12-07 0.088524 0.136981 0.204679 0.304712 0.446978 0.639929 0.918792
2025-12-14 0.071203 0.117995 0.187246 0.295119 0.456283 0.684885 1.029445
2025-12-21 0.058786 0.103744 0.173865 0.288414 0.467238 0.731131 1.143789
2025-12-28 0.051484 0.096132 0.169098 0.293404 0.495056 0.803017 1.300072
2026-01-04 0.046461 0.091368 0.167957 0.303485 0.531050 0.889371 1.484142
2026-01-11 0.041595 0.086000 0.164900 0.309661 0.560782 0.967706 1.661062
2026-01-18 0.036962 0.080249 0.160279 0.312321 0.584416 1.037508 1.828846
2026-01-25 0.032697 0.074469 0.154745 0.312475 0.603312 1.100363 1.989075
2026-02-01 0.028593 0.068308 0.147616 0.308700 0.614533 1.150593 2.131053
2026-02-08 0.024870 0.062408 0.140371 0.304146 0.624398 1.200147 2.277326
2026-02-15 0.021071 0.055673 0.130538 0.293383 0.621614 1.227185 2.386544
2026-02-22 0.020178 0.055480 0.134299 0.310362 0.673487 1.356650 2.687372
2026-03-01 0.017371 0.050164 0.126255 0.301814 0.674109 1.391187 2.817239
2026-03-08 0.014899 0.045199 0.118255 0.292303 0.671634 1.419275 2.936460
2026-03-15 0.012954 0.041219 0.111935 0.285655 0.674252 1.457014 3.075992
2026-03-22 0.011914 0.039513 0.110804 0.290603 0.701823 1.545605 3.319110
2026-03-29 0.011237 0.038718 0.111805 0.300597 0.741146 1.660300 3.620375
2026-04-05 0.010428 0.037374 0.111225 0.306720 0.772348 1.760395 3.898446
2026-04-12 0.009542 0.035617 0.109318 0.309357 0.795819 1.845885 4.151933
2026-04-19 0.008648 0.033650 0.106560 0.309510 0.813466 1.920076 4.386337